Dorkapalooza 2010!
This past Saturday was my first time attending the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in Boston, on the second leg of my spring break trip. With over 1000 folks packed into the Boston Conference Center to hear about the evolving role of statistics and technology used in sports, the event dubbed “Dorkapalooza” by ESPN pop sports writer Bill Simmons pretty easily lived up to the hype.
The Panels
I went to 5 panels- below are my notes detailing the key insights from each discussion. [I got tired of typing so my comments get increasingly sparse. This was a long post so please point out any typos.]
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1. Next Generation Sports Management
This panel sought to address the evolving role of sports ownership in general, with economic problems, globalization, and new technology all poised to effect big changes in the nature of salary cap rules, revenue sharing, and sports entertainment.
- There’s been a growing recognition of sports as a good investment; this has been reflected in the increased activity of overseas owners acquiring stakes in American teams (the Cavs and Nets immediately come to mind).
- In that vein, sports are a sustainable business; compared to other industries, sports teams are not displaced by new technology. (Some MLB and NFL teams have been around for 100s of years, compared with the lifecycle of your average Fortune 500 subject to competitive pressures, changing consumer behavior, and periodic economic upheaval)
- On the perennial question of the tradeoff between wins & profitability (which is an issue assuming that spending is correlated with wins, a fact that’s been proven in baseball and still holds true in other sports like basketball and football):
- Sports is a “quasi-public good”. If you’re a profitable team that happens to be perennially unsuccessful (the Clippers were the running joke in this conference— exactly the type of unenlightened, uninformed leadership that this generation of execs is trying to combat), you run the risk of alienating your fan base. A popular refrain throughout the day was the correlation between wins and profitability— a winning team generates interest and a passionate fan base, which is ultimately the only sustainable way to be profitable.
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2. International Expansion
With the rapid globalization and spread of appreciation of American sports globally, the next frontier for American sports leagues is overseas expansion. Exploring this topic were some big names— Sunil Galati, head of the US Soccer Federation (leading the MLS and the US bid for the 2018 FIFA World Cup); Mark Waller, CMO of the NFL; Maurizio Gherardini, senior VP of the Toronto Raptors; and David Baxter, president of the adidas Sports Licensed division. The vast experience of these speakers resulted in a discussion as anthropological as it was technical/managerial.
- A big challenge in taking sports like (American) football global is in translating the cultural experience. For a game as complex as the NFL, even the simplest play-by-play commentary is difficult to follow for fans not well-versed in the sport.
- For the MLS, it’ll be tough to turn demand for the SPORT of soccer into demand for the MLS product, especially when the MLS clearly isn’t the top-caliber soccer league in the world. The expansion strategy will have to shift to reflect this reality.
- Gherardini made some good points about how the dynamics of sports in US and Europe are completely different. Europe employs an “open” system, where essentially anyone with enough money can start a new team and move up and down leagues depending on their success, while the US is a closed system more controlled by league-wide mandates. Also different is how sports are treated by fans—according to Gherardini, in Europe, “once the game’s started, it’s like Church. You can’t move!”. This explains why always-open concession stands aren’t a widespread phenomenon in European sports venues, simply because no one wants to leave their seats during the match.
- On the risk of top players going overseas? Not very likely, due to the competition and level of play here. But, Europe will definitely evolve as a destination for player development, as some players (like the case of Jennings) can advance rapidly by being in a different environment.
- Seeding sports in a new country is a long-term process of brand-building that requires patience. The NBA has done the best job to date with its international strategy.
- The BRIC economies will be the next big destination for sports expansion.
- Keeping with the notion of sports expansion as long-term, Gulati views soccer in the US on a 50-year time horizon. Soccer popularity is slowly growing in this country (Americans are the #1 ticket buyers for the 2010 World Cup!). He sees the next 6 months as potentially being the most crucial period in the history of US soccer— with the US-England match in June, and the results of the World Cup bid announced in December. Should be fun to watch.
- We probably won’t see NBA teams based overseas anytime soon, because the dimension of potential business in Europe isn’t big enough to make that viable. The “TV countries” (the ones that watch the most) in Europe aren’t the same countries that care about basketball, which is a huge factor given that TV revenue streams are a big part of sports league revenue.
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3. What Geeks Don’t Get
This was basically the headline event of the day— Mark Cuban (owner of the Dallas Mavs), Darryl Morey (GM of the Houston Rockets), Jonathan Kraft (part of the Kraft Group, owner of the NE Patriots), Bill Polian (GM of the Indy Colts), and Bill Simmons (ESPN writer) were joined by writer Michael Lewis to discuss, in a nutshell, the state of the sports analytics industry. The panel was more entertaining than educational, and watching the three “basketball” guys (Morey, Cuban, Simmons) go back and forth was fun.
- The overarching theme— communication is key, because no matter how useful the stats are, they need to have wide applicability and be easy to understand to actually matter.
- Kraft was a detriment to the discussion, contributing almost no useful information other than detailing the vagaries of statistical analysis in football. Bill Polian had some good insights on how- 1) the sample size in football is so small and makes trend tracking difficult, 2) coaches have basically been using analytics in stats and video for over 30 years, and advanced statistics are hard to use in football.
- The players don’t need to understand the details; it’s up to the GM and coach to implement the findings. Interesting is the evolving role of the GM as decision-maker and planner for the organization.
- Mark Cuban had some cool thoughts about the importance of psychological analysis for basketball players. He outed Gerald Green as a moron.
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4. Basketball Analytics
Discussing the state of analytics in basketball was a panel featuring Cuban, John Hollinger (ESPN), Kevin Pritchard (Blazers GM), Mike Zarren (Celtics asst. GM), Dean Oliver (author of the Bible of basketball analytics, Basketball on Paper), and Marc Stein (ESPN writer).
- One of the biggest issues with basketball right now is the lack of standardized collection of advanced statistics (things like deflections, charges, etc., all variables that any team that uses statistical analysis spends significant capital and effort on individually collecting). A big shift in the next couple of years will be when the league finally starts systematizing the collection of this data and making it available to teams.
- A cool statement from Dean Oliver on a tell-all metric: “+/- is just a fact. Adjusted +/- is an analysis.”
- The biggest tell as to whether stats are being used by teams- looking at the lineups that coaches play. That’s probably the most effective way to use statistics, analyzing what players work best together against certain lineups.
- Box scores are so limited now because they capture the outcome of only 20% of defensive plays (blocks, steals, etc.). They don’t talk about stops, deflections, missed shots, who made a mistake on the play, etc.- things that really matter.
- Video tracking- the kind that’s offered by Synergy Sports- will be the “quantum leap” in basketball analytics.
- Read more about this panel on Truehoop.
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5. Future of Sports Journalism
This was a fascinating discussion on how new media is affecting how we follow sports, so it was more a journalism conversation than a sports talk.
- “Destination media” is increasingly valueless. The value lies in individuals as platforms for providing good, accurate content that can be trusted over time.
- Breaking news and scoops are no longer important when information becomes commodified within minutes. It doesn’t matter to be first anymore; what matters is your ability to provide deeper analysis/inside commentary. Long-form journalism will be very valuable. “What’s durable is authority.”
- “Audiences are driven by the ability to be smarter”; it’s crucial to make your content easily accessible and allow your readers to be their own news-gatherers.
- Broadcasters and their audiences are simultaneously creating content, and it’s possible to instantaneously understand how people are reading and reacting to things you write.
- People have a notion of “if the news is important, it’ll find me.”
- ESPN is still trying to figure out its most effective real-time strategy and the right mix between curating/creating content, a topic particularly germane to me given my work on TickrTalk.
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The People
Probably the coolest part of the day was seeing all the big NBA and ESPN names in attendance. Because of the nature of the event, everyone was accessible and open for conversation- it was great to be able to pick the brains of people like Mark Cuban, Bill Simmons, Brent Barry, Marc Stein, David Thorpe, Henry Abbott, Mike Zarren, Howard Beck, and Jason Fry. This aspect of the event alone made going worthwhile.
The Big Picture
Blazers GM Kevin Pritchard described the use of analytics in basketball as still “in the second inning”. Just under half the teams in the NBA had representatives in attendance at the conference, and the attendees radiated the kind of palpable buzz one senses at the beginning of a large movement (aside: the last time I felt a similar mix of optimism and enthusiasm was at an Obama rally during the Pennsylvania primaries). People bemoan the sports industry’s woes in this economy, but the smart leadership on display at this event convince me that it’ll move in the right direction. Sports seems to be leading other industries in its efficient use of data and technology, and the future’s exciting.
