A good decision-making framework:

Will I learn a lot from the experience? (failure can be very educational)
Will it make my life more interesting? (a predictable life is a boring life)
Is it good for the world? (even if I don’t benefit, maybe someone else will)

In his words, “Evaluating risk and opportunity (as a human)”. Basically, is what you’re doing meaningful enough that whether or not you *succeed* in the traditional sense, you’re happy you did it?